The Maturity Matrix: Self-Identification Ratios in Risk Management

Last week we talked about transparency with examiners. Here's what determines if they believe your program is mature: the ratio of control gaps YOU identify versus gaps THEY identify.

Self-identify 90%? Maturity. Examiners find 95%? Performative.

Having worked in both internal audit and risk management, the difference isn't framework sophistication - it's when you discover problems.

You can over-engineer a framework to death. Sophistication without execution is just complexity. What matters is your self-identification ratio.

Where Most Banks Actually Are

Level 1: Auditor/Examiner-Discovered

Your internal audit finds everything. Examiners read those reports and validate findings, occasionally discovering their own gaps.

Ratio: ~1:9 (you find 10%, they find 90%)

What they think: "This program is really immature. Without us, they'd never identify control gaps."

Level 2: Exam-Driven Discovery

Either during the exam itself (auditors ask questions that make you look) or during prep 30-60 days out (you proactively find gaps before they arrive). Both scenarios are reactive - triggered by the exam cycle, not routine monitoring.

Ratio: ~2:8 to 4:6 (you're finding 20-40%)

What they think: "Cooperative and want to fix things when we're in the building, but they wouldn't find these issues without us showing up."

Reality Check

Most banks operate at Level 1-2 and wonder why examiners question their monitoring.

Your policy says quarterly vendor reviews. But in reality? You're 8 months behind catching up during exam prep. That's not monitoring - that's archaeology.

Here's the thing: a 1:0 ratio is impossible. Even the most mature programs have auditors and examiners find things. That's their value - they have time and perspective to dig into edge cases you haven't reached yet.

"Moving from a 1:9 ratio to 8:2 changes everything. At 8:2, audit and exam become assets finding edge cases - not adversaries discovering systemic failures you missed."

What Actually Works

Level 3: Routine Testing

Scheduled testing catches issues 3-6 months before exams, independent of exam cycles. Most programs claim quarterly testing - reality is annual at best and not comprehensive enough.

Ratio: ~7:3 to 8:2

What they think: "Pretty mature. We're confident they'd be adequate without us."

Getting here requires discipline: schedule testing independent of exams, test comprehensively (timeliness, completeness, all risk factors), and test documented controls - not aspirational ones.

Level 4: Real-Time Monitoring

Real-time automated monitoring. Requires investment in technology and dedicated resources.

Ratio: ~9:1 or better

What they think: "So mature we're just here because we have to be."

The Path Forward

Most banks fail because they're stuck at Level 1 pretending their policies reflect Level 3.

The question isn't where your policy says you are—it's where your last audit results show you actually operate. That's the number that matters.

RM

About the Author

Risk Management Consultant

With over 15 years of experience in financial services risk management, I help regional banks and credit unions build TPRM frameworks that actually work—without the enterprise overhead. My approach focuses on practical solutions that satisfy regulators while respecting your institution's resources and capabilities.

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